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Redistricting shuffle makes race to succeed Nunes a low-primal affair

Half-dozen candidates seek seat, merely three are vying elsewhere in June

A shuffle among incumbents after redistricting and the state losing a seat has led to a low-key California special election to fill the remainder of former Republican Rep. Devin Nunes' term. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)
A shuffle among incumbents after redistricting and the land losing a seat has led to a low-cardinal California special ballot to make full the remainder of former Republican Rep. Devin Nunes' term. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photograph)

Posted March 30, 2022 at v:00am

The iv Republicans and 2 Democrats running in a California special election to succeed ex-Rep. Devin Nunes have something in common: They're in the hunt for a expressionless-cease job.

For whoever wins the race this spring in California's 22nd District, it'southward a temporary gig that ends when the 117th Congress adjourns on Jan. 3. The winner will have no built-in advantage running for reelection as an incumbent for a full term because California lost one seat to reapportionment and the new map that shuffled district numbers also led to several incumbents running in new terrain.

At present considered a safe Republican seat, the 22nd District volition morph into a much more than competitive district in the November midterms, with GOP Rep. David Valadao running to defend it.

Nunes resigned constructive Jan. 1 to run a new media enterprise of quondam President Donald Trump. The April 5 special primary for his unexpired term is being run under the same boundaries that gave Nunes an 8-betoken win in 2020. Early on voting by postal service ran from March 7 through Tuesday.

Under California police, the principal is open to voters of all parties, and if one of the contenders captures more than fifty percentage, that person volition caput to Congress. Otherwise, the top two finishers will face off in a runoff on June 7, the same day as the statewide primary using new district lines for the next Congress. And some of the people running in next week'south special primary are running in the regular primary in a dissimilar commune.

'Sleepy race'

None of the candidates running in next week'due south race take raised center-popping sums, and no outside organizations had made any independent expenditures through last calendar week, according to disclosures to the Federal Election Commission.

Voter turnout is expected to be relatively low. "This special election has been a very sleepy race," said CQ Ringlet Call elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales.

I top GOP contender for the unexpired term, former land Assemblywoman Connie Conway, is non running to stay in Congress adjacent year. As a old Tulare County supervisor and Republican leader in the state Assembly, Conway has strong name identification. She has raised $83,000 and had almost $50,000 on hand as of March 16, according to contempo FEC filings.

Another pinnacle GOP contender is Elizabeth Heng, a Stanford- and Yale-educated engineering science executive who hauled in $215,000 and held more than $lx,000 as of March 16, filings show. Her donors include Land First, a PAC affiliated with Illinois GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after his supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. half dozen, 2021. Another supporter of Heng's entrada is the Value In Electing Women PAC.

"Elizabeth Heng represents the time to come of the Republican Party," said Julie Conway, VIEW PAC'due south executive director. "She'southward so smart ... and brings a sure youth and diversity to this race, and she'southward got a bright future."

Heng previously worked on Capitol Hill and ran unsuccessfully in the 16th District against Autonomous Rep. Jim Costa in 2018.

Whether Heng wins or loses, she will be able to draw from the experience, VIEW PAC'due south Conway said. "I think information technology's only positive that she'due south running and running a good race," she said.

Heng'south campaign did not respond to an interview request, only she is not listed as a candidate running in the June primary for a full term.

District shuffle

Nether the new map, less than 10 percent of the 22nd District's current population will be in the new 22nd District. Some 55 percent of the new district volition come from Valadao's current 21st District, and the residue from Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's 23rd District, co-ordinate to calculations by Daily Kos Elections.

About 41 percent of the current district will end upwards in the new 21st District, forth with 45 percentage of Costa'due south current 16th Commune. Costa is running for reelection in the 21st.

Another top GOP contender in the special main is Matt Stoll, a Navy veteran and business owner, who disclosed the nigh coin, with $221,000 in total receipts, including a $100,000 loan from himself. He had $114,000 on paw equally of March 16.

Stoll is one of iii candidates running in the 22nd District adjacent week who will be on the June ballot seeking the nomination for a full term in the 21st District.

The others are Republican Navy veteran Michael Maher, who raised almost $60,000 and held about $31,000 every bit of March 16, and Democrat Eric Garcia. A Marine Corps veteran, Garcia raised about $206,000 and had $1,700 in his account as of March xvi.

'Antics and talking points'

The other Democrat in the special primary is Lourin Hubbard, a state water section operations manager. Hubbard raised but shy of $lx,000 and had $23,000 on mitt equally of March 16.

Democrat Lourin Hubbard is running in the special primary in California's 22nd Commune. (Photograph courtesy of Hubbard for Congress 2022)

"I started this campaign because I wanted to see some Democratic representation," Hubbard said during a recent phone interview. "I got really tired of Devin Nunes and all of his antics and talking points and not delivering."

He said he had worked to build a coalition of conservative-leaning Democrats along with the party's more progressive members, such as himself.

"That's actually the future that I see," Hubbard said. "If we are going to have the reputation of a large-tent political party, sometimes nosotros've got to keep our tent together. Candidates that are able to do that tend to be successful."

Hubbard said that even if he wins the special ballot, he did not wait to run again in November. His home will be in the new 21st Commune, he said, where Costa is seeking reelection.

Though the national party committees haven't put much focus on the special election, the race in Nov for the new 22nd District volition exist some other story.

State Assemblyman Rudy Salas is challenging Valadao for the seat, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently added Salas to its "Cherry-red to Blue" program. Within Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates that race a Toss-upward.

Inside Elections rates the race in the 21st District, where Costa faces Garcia, Stoll and Maher in the June primary, as Solid Democratic. If the new lines had been in place then, President Joe Biden would have carried the district by xx points.